Quarantine Escape - Compliance Threshold Model

Basic R₀

3.0

Recovery Rate (γ) per day

0.10

Initial Infected (%)

0.5%

Compliance Rate (%)

60%

Detection Delay (days)

3.0 days

Quarantine Duration (days)

14 days

Escape Rate (%/day)

Tracing Efficiency (%)

50%

Quarantine is effective when:

R_e = R₀ × (1 - q × c × e)

Where q = quarantine rate, c = compliance, e = effectiveness.

To control outbreak: R_e < 1, requiring compliance above critical threshold.

Susceptible

Infected

Quarantined

Recovered

Peak Infected

Final Size

Susceptible

99.5%

Infected

0.5%

Quarantined

Recovered

Effective R

3.00

0% Compliance Critical: 67% 100% Compliance

Borderline Control

Day: 0 Peak Infected: 0% Final Attack Rate: 0%