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The Risky Shift Phenomenon

Groups make riskier decisions than individuals

The Paradox

James Stoner (MIT, 1961) discovered something counterintuitive: we assume committees and groups make safer, more cautious decisions. But the opposite is true! After group discussion, people shift toward more extreme positions—usually riskier ones. This "risky shift" is now understood as part of group polarization: groups amplify the initial tendencies of their members.

1. Your Decision
2. Group Discussion
3. Final Choice
Scenario 1 of 4 Career Risk
Mr. A is an electrical engineer with a secure, adequate job. He's offered a position with a new startup company that, if successful, would pay 10x his current salary. However, the startup has uncertain prospects—it might fail within a year.

What minimum probability of success would you require before advising Mr. A to take the new job?

10% (Very Risky) 90% (Very Safe)
50% minimum success probability

Why Does This Happen?

Social Comparison: We admire risk-takers. In discussion, we discover others are willing to take more risk than we assumed—so we shift to seem at least as bold.

Persuasive Arguments: Pro-risk arguments are more culturally acceptable to voice. The group hears more reasons to take risks than to be cautious, tipping the balance.

Diffusion of Responsibility: When the group decides together, no single person bears full blame if things go wrong. This makes risky choices feel safer.