Moral Luck - When Outcomes Determine Blame

"Where a significant aspect of what someone does depends on factors beyond his control, yet we continue to treat him in that respect as an object of moral judgment, it can be called moral luck." — Thomas Nagel, "Moral Luck" (1979)

We believe morality should be the one arena where luck has no power. Yet philosophers Thomas Nagel and Bernard Williams showed that our moral judgments are deeply affected by luck.

Let's test this with a thought experiment.

🚗 Two Drivers, One Night

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Driver A

After a party, decides to drive home despite having had 4 drinks. Blood alcohol: 0.09% (over the legal limit). Takes familiar back roads.

Same choice as Driver B

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Driver B

After a party, decides to drive home despite having had 4 drinks. Blood alcohol: 0.09% (over the legal limit). Takes familiar back roads.

Same choice as Driver A

Both drivers made identical choices. Both took the same risk.

🎲 The Role of Luck

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Driver A

Drives home on empty roads. No one else is out at this hour. Arrives home safely.

✓ No harm done

🚙

Driver B

A child chases a ball into the road. Driver B doesn't stop in time. The child is killed.

✗ Tragedy occurs

The only difference is whether a child happened to be on the road—
something neither driver could control.

⚖️ Your Judgment

How much blame does Driver A deserve?

No blame Maximum blame

3/10

How much blame does Driver B deserve?

No blame Maximum blame

8/10

You Judged Them Differently

Driver A (Lucky)

3/10

Driver B (Unlucky)

8/10

Difference: 5 points

They made identical choices. They took identical risks.
The only difference was luck— whether a child happened to be there.

The Control Principle

"We should only be morally assessed for what is within our control."

If this principle is true, the two drivers deserve equal blame.
But almost everyone blames Driver B more. That's the paradox.

🎭 Four Types of Moral Luck

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Resultant

Luck in how your actions turn out (the drunk driver case)

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Circumstantial

Luck in the situations you face (born in Nazi Germany vs. elsewhere)

🧬

Constitutive

Luck in who you are (temperament, inclinations, capacities)

⛓️

Causal

Luck in what causes your actions (determinism vs. free will)

The Uncomfortable Truth

We want to believe that morality is fair— that what matters is your choices, not the random outcomes.

Yet our moral intuitions don't work that way.

As Nagel wrote: "We may be persuaded that these moral judgments are irrational, but they reappear involuntarily as soon as the argument is over."